Loom Is Worth $1B; Can They Keep It Together?
Now that the deal is done, the pressure is on for Loom Games. Downloads are already slowing, and we are seeing that show up in inactive users. The key question is where this genre is headed.
Genres like match pair looked like a promising emerging subgenre, but in the end, it became dominated by Match Factory. While that game has sustained an impressive run rate, growth stalled and the genre reached cruising altitude.
Hybridcasual has been experimenting with puzzle templates like sort and screw, but they have not achieved the level of retention we see in match. I pin this on cognitive complexity being too high, which slows velocity, reduces attempts, reduces the number of fail screens players see, and ultimately reduces sink. In many ways, match has become slots, with most early level ranges hitting around 1.0 to 1.1 attempts per success. The secret to match balancing over the last couple of years has been to largely punch down on APS and plan streak formation with hard-level difficulty labeling.
Merge 2 continues to be a smashing success. Teams have been able to pair stronger narrative elements this core demo responds to with new economy mechanics that actually expand spend velocity, something match has struggled with for a long time.
Stay tuned for Puzzle Monthly #1 with Aylin Yazici, David Nelson, Tom Storr, and Laura Taranto, plus an Avengers-style guest roster to come.
If you want to read more about where these subgenres are moving right now, start with: