The rise of Monopoly Go! was unperceived not only in games, but also in all of entertainment and nearly the tech industry. However, its stagnation is hindering its teenage years, and regression is looming. Broadly, all of Scopely is in the red, with Monopoly Go grasping onto revenue as downloads decline.
And yet, all of a sudden, when we re-examine its portfolio, the chess game becomes more apparent. A lion’s share of its growth has come through acquisition, and the impact of Pokémon Go on the company cannot be understated.
This seems to have come together slowly, as Scopley was hesitant to marry any studio before a 2nd party date. Scopely made many of the right moves when it came to early thinking around IP in mobile, including its relationship to cost per install, the role of live operations, and what pains me to admit is what CEO Javier Ferreira called the “Scopely OS.” For all these right moves, however, it took until Monopoly Go to achieve breakout success, which they not only seized but also pushed to its marketing limit.
However, whenever Monopoly Go sneezes, the company will now catch a cold. So much of Scopley’s success hinges on Monopoly Go growing. Instead, it’s shrinking. Even just a 1% change here more than makes up for 1% across every other game in the portfolio combined. While web stores may help, the decline in both downloads and MAU is telling and suggests there’s real pain across the portfolio.
The second-order priority has to be applying the “Scopely OS” to Pokémon Go. It was one of the few titles to grow year over year, and it needs to grow even more to not only mitigate Monopoly Go’s potential decline but also counter the looming threat of Pokémon TCG Pocket, which may be driving up the cost of installs.
The portfolio also tells a fascinating story of how only getting even one idea right is enough to subsidize many mediocre results. Similar to the story of Candy Crush or even Clash of Clans, you can ride forever franchises for…forever? Seeming slam dunks like Scrabble Go or Dice with Ellen have disappointed, while co-CEO Walter’s white whale remains elusive: a top match-3 title. Stumble Guys can only be considered a disappointment even on substantial ad revenue, given declining downloads and MAU.
Scopely is now the custodian of two of the top-grossing mobile games of all time. It remains up to them to cement them as forever franchises that have yet to see their best years, just as games like Candy Crush or Clash of Clans continue to deliver all-time great results to this day.