Like many, I believe Marvel Snap is a magnum opus in CCG design, creating the first true mobile CCG. But the ultimate reality is that revenue collapsed. Thirty-three months after launch, it’s nearly the worst-performing Marvel game by revenue. The hypothesis of a sticky core hasn’t materialized as Sensor Tower estimates that active users have declined at a similar rate to revenue.
I’ve previously covered the struggles of their progression system, as mechanical band-aids after band-aids have arrived, but I’ve wondered if this is just a more fundamental mismatch. Despite a phony core, Pokémon TCG pocket, a loot box simulator, will pass Pokémon Go in cumulative revenue on a launch basis. I certainly didn’t expect this, and was wrong about Pocket! It’s a remarkable achievement driven by 5x per user monetization on 4x the user base, almost exclusively Japanese players alone.
CCGs function like lifestyle games, and inserting a new one has nearly always been met with failure, with 20-year-old bodies littering the genre graveyard while web3 arrives with new bodies daily. Like MOBAs, TCGs have a “centre of gravity” around players’ lives, and it’s no wonder that their physical versions still go strong. Disney Lorcana TCG’s eventual mobile launch may be anchored in a similar concept, while I imagine Yu-Gi-Oh! and One Piece can’t be far behind.