Hypercasual solved a novel problem for *all* mobile titles: marketing. Like web3, hypercasual always seems to be caught in its drama with recurring reports of death or life on top of wash trading driving genre GDP. But beneath all the bullshit, hypercasual discovered something profound: how to get BILLIONS of players to download games at sub $1 CPIs. In 2022, hypercasual accounted for 29% of ALL app store downloads and cleared over 1 BILLION monthly downloads. The numbers represent real player action – they see something in hypercasual ads they don’t see in others. On a rough click-through basis, players might be 5 to 10 times more likely to tap on hypercasual ads then midcore ads.
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Supply-chain economics is as much a game design responsibility as it is production. Core design influences the production gap between Blizzard’s Overwatch heroes and, say, Ubisoft’s Rainbow Six Siege (R6:Siege) Operators. Ubisoft has shipped an average of .51 new Operators per month since launch compared to Blizzard’s .21 new heroes, more than double the pace. Blizzard will pack far more lore, cosmetics, and unique gameplay into each hero at the time of release – it’s part of the Blizzard “quality bar,” but maybe heroes should release faster and with fewer “features.” In faster character designs, weapons are sometimes disintermediated from character units – Apex and Valorent release weapons separately. Part of player empathy is servicing players’ content needs, with many legacy AAA studios refusing to tackle the challenge. But it’s at their peril; players ultimately choose the optimal mix of quality and quantity, not design directors.
(more…)The reverse-Blizzard thesis has arrived. Firms like Blizzard, Supercell, Valve, and even Apple thrived on popularizing but not inventing mechanics and genres. Blizzard’s next fresh franchise, a survival crafting game, draws heavily from predecessors like Ark: Survival Evolved and Rust. Those titles failed to scale to mainstream adoption; if players need a server browser for play, it’s not ready for the mainstream. But both Supercell and Blizzard have struggled to scale their studios to meet modern content demands, and that’s left them open for a sort of reverse thesis: drop production values and win on the supply side.
(more…)Chinese games have gone global. This week’s launch of Honkai: Star Rail and Starlight 84 marks China’s emergence as a AAA developer for Western audiences.
(more…)The world’s least powerful CEO won’t lead Supercell’s next chapter. Supercell is superscaling, and with it comes bureaucratization and hierarchy.
(more…)Snap is doing…ok! It peaked at 10K Steam PSU and 14M mobile downloads. But for all the innovation and press hullabaloo, shouldn’t Snap have higher expectations? After all, Vampire Survivors, from a team of one, wrapped up the year moving 2.5m copies at $5 a pop, with zero budget. And lest we not forget, Snap’s launch marketing war chest is now dryer than an FTX’s office party. Downloads have fallen from ~800k a day in October to ~50k in January; DAU will soon follow suit. It’s too early for a title of Snap’s caliber to see DAU softness!
Second Dinner’s successful unshackling of the mobile design paradigm is also the source of Snap’s struggles. Vertical progression or the ability of players to increase their power level 1 guarantees a relationship between time spent and progress. The more a player plays, the more the player will progress. No such connection is guaranteed in horizontally dominated games like Snap.
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