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Anti-Ai Artists Need Better Arguments; They’re Losing the AI Debate

Another wave of AI advances, another chorus of artists crying foul. Each wave has been unoccupied by serious argumentation; pro-Copyrightists need to advance something beyond an assumed conclusion if they want to win minds, not just hearts. Copyrightists routinely declare AI-generated art and “training” as copyright infringement and insist artists are owed royalties. This presumption is anything but obvious.

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Four Things from GDC
  1. We have to want to live

    This revelation insight from former Machine Zone CEO Gabe Leydon spun my head throughout the conference. He’s right: our passion isn’t dead, but it’s undoubtedly been crowded out. Mobile obsesses over acquisition, while HD fixates on fundraising. New platform dreams—web3, AR/VR, HTML5, UGC—have largely fizzled. Yet these platforms persist, surviving but not thriving. Mock AR/VR as the “Dippin’ Dots of Games” if you like, but at least those developers burn with genuine passion.

    The rest of the industry must reignite the will to survive—the kind we see from firms like Supercell, Lessmore, and Hypehype.
  2. AI start supply-side; innovation to follow

    Michail Katkoff made an excellent observation about the absence of the “world-changing” bravado heard from SF founders intoxicated by Paul Graham essays. Instead, the talks were pragmatic—topics like ” ‘Angry Birds’ and AI in Practice: Finding Our Own Way.” Games’ AI progress has been slower and more modest than I expected, but the supply-side evolution is well underway.

    The indie game section demonstrated this shift, overflowing with polished 3D worlds instead of the usual charming 2D sprites.

    There’s no shortage of seed AI ventures either, restoring my confidence that we’ll soon master this tool to advance the game-making craft. Realistically, we’re ~2-3 years from seeing a major mainstream AI-driven hit.
  3. Mobile has finally earn industry peer respect

    It’s about time. While a decade late, HD developers and indies no longer dismiss “mobile” as trivial. I counted over 30 mobile-focused talks! Seeing companies like Scopely actively participate was an encouraging sign that mobile also wants to be a peer of the game industry, not the tech industry.

    GDC is a conference of peers, and it feels like that at each talk. It talks about actual developers sharing lessons and perspectives that advance the craft of game-making. Talks like “Tabletop Summit: Timeless Design Lessons from 25 Years of ‘Duel Masters’ TCG”.

    While many opt for the Expo-only pass (myself included in past years), I intend to get the full pass annually. I read a lot of copium from non-attendees, and they’re wrong; if you’re a developer, this is the place to be every year—if you’re serious about advancing the game craft, GDC is essential.
  4. Sweeps, sweeps baby

    One of the few EXPLOSIVE growth sections has been in sweeps, or games where players earn virtual currency they can redeem for real-world prizes. While this is a regulatory timebomb, the results so far are breathtaking. I understand the muted enthusiasm from the developers, but the reality is that we need to approach everything with an open mind, including one of the new growth sectors. Like hypercasual, sweeps may look messy now, but their innovation inevitably trickles down.
Mobile Gaming’s Survival is Married to the U.S. Economy; It Should Ask for A Divorce

If you’re European, you need the U.S. economy to grow. If you’re Canadian, you need the U.S. economy to grow. This sobering reality underscores nearly every Western mobile development hub today: for mobile gaming to grow, the U.S. needs to grow. Although optimistic narratives from developing markets like India and Brazil are abundant, their growth rates still pale compared to the U.S.’s real spending power growth. For the foreseeable future, it’s U.S. or bust in mobile gaming, a reality suggesting mobile gaming doesn’t control its destiny.

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Digest or Die: Tripledot’s Big Gamble

Tripledot’s nearly $1B acquisition of Applovin’s studio collection appears to be a massive and leveraged gamble but reflects the shrinking pool of the hyper-to-hybrid publisher game of musical chairs. With the stroke of a pen, Tripledot’s revenue portfolio radically shifts from 1% IAP to being a majority. Meanwhile, Voodoo, Homa, and others undergo painful and slow transitions in hybrid-style games, with success stories like All In Hole taking over two years to release after Attack Hole’s 2022 release. Rather than incremental growth, Tripledot bet on transformative integration in one dramatic move. While there’s massive operational risk, if Tripledot can digest Applovin’s studio collection, the product will be larger than the sum of its new parts.

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The Economics of Match Events

Nearly all economic activity in match-based or “saga”-based metas follows the fundamental relationship:

[ text{Revenue}_{i} = text{Gold Sink}_{i} = text{Attempts}_{i} cdot text{Gold Sink Per Attempt}_{i} ]

where,

(bullet) (text{Revenue}_{i}) is the revenue for the (i)th player. (\) (\) (bullet) (text{Attempts}_{i}) is the number of attempts made by the (i)th player. (\) (bullet) (text{Gold Sink Per Attempt}_{i}) is the average of gold spent per attempt by the (i)th player. (\)
(\) Holding (text{Gold Sink Per Attempt}) constant, an increase in (text{Attempts}) leads to higher (text{Revenue}). Similarly, increasing the (text{Gold Sink Per Attempt}) while holding (text{Attempts}) constant also raises (text{Revenue}). Many innovations in match economies operate within this framework. For instance, a “super light ball” mechanic increases (text{Attempts}) but reduces the (text{Gold Sink Per Attempt}). Events follow the same structure.

Basic Match Model

At the aggregate level, revenue across all players is: $$ text{Revenue} = sum_{i}bigl(text{Attempts}_{i} cdot text{Gold Sink Per Attempt}_{i}bigr) $$
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